Is the probability of winning Mega-Sena actually correct?

It's not that it's "wrong" exactly, but a lot of people underestimate just how ridiculously low it actually is. The chance of winning the jackpot in Mega-Sena is 1 in over 50 million - basically you're more likely to get struck by lightning. The probability that Caixa publishes is mathematically correct, but people usually don't really understand what that huge number means in practice, you know?

The math is actually correct, but people confuse probability with everyday reality! Like, you're more likely to get struck by lightning than win the Mega-Sena, and someone does get struck by lightning from time to time - but that doesn't mean you should count on either of those things happening!