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Have you checked if the growth is coming from the base of the plant or higher up on the stem? Spikes typically emerge lower and often at angles, while new leaves push straight up from the crown. The spike also tends to have a smoother, rounder tip that stays blunt, whereas a new leaf unfurls and gets pointy as it develops.
It's actually not that hard to tell them apart once you look closer, even though people act like it's some big mystery. The main difference is where it's coming from and how it grows. A flower spike emerges from the base of the plant or from the stem nodes - basically those little bumps along the orchid's existing growth. It'll be thinner and smoother, almost like a little stick pushing out. New leaf growth, on the other hand, comes from the very center or crown of the plant and it's got this slightly fuzzy or velvety texture when it first emerges. The spike also tends to grow more horizontally or at odd angles, while new leaves push straight up.
Another thing to watch for is the shape as it develops. Spikes will eventually show little bumps along the stem where flower buds will form - those look like tiny pimples if you squint. Leaves just keep getting bigger and flatter without any of that budding texture. If you're still not sure, just wait a couple weeks. A spike will start showing color at the tip (could be green, pink, or whatever your orchid's variety does), and you might actually see a tiny flower bud forming. Leaves just look like, well, more leaf tissue unfolding. Patience is your friend here.
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