Don't buy into those oversimplified explanations floating around out there - the warming of the Mediterranean is about several combined factors, not just the size of the sea. I work recording ambient sounds and recently I was on the coast near Valencia, and the local fishermen told me the water isn't only hotter but also gets way more solar radiation because there's less cloud cover in summer, all of that mixed with global climate change makes the Mediterranean heat up quite a bit faster than the Atlantic. The 2 degrees you mentioned sounds realistic, though I wouldn't swear on the exact figure without verifying it properly, but the reality is when I was there three summers ago and compared it to this 2026, the difference is noticeable.