Refusing a direct deployment order is pretty serious and yeah, it can lead to court-martial and discharge, but it depends on the circumstances and how he handles it. If he just straight-up refuses, he's looking at charges like missing movement or failure to obey orders, which carry real consequences. That said, there are legit ways to request deferment or exceptions without it being an outright refusal. He should talk to his chain of command, a JAG (Judge Advocate General) officer, or his unit's chaplain about his situation. Many branches have policies for hardship cases, especially involving family emergencies or dependent care issues. The key is doing this *before* the deployment, not after.
There are a few official routes worth exploring. Some units offer hardship defer requests if there's a genuine family crisis - twins on the way could potentially qualify, depending on his wife's health, childcare availability, and financial situation. He can also look into emergency leave or requesting to speak with someone about his family's specific circumstances. Some military families get extensions or delayed deployments based on documented hardship. The military bureaucracy is confusing, but going through proper channels shows he's trying to solve this legitimately rather than just refusing orders.
The worst move is ghosting or ignoring the deployment notice. If he communicates his concerns respectfully through official channels and explores available options, he's in a much better position. Even if a deferment isn't granted, showing good faith effort matters if any legal stuff comes up later. He should get advice from a JAG officer ASAP - that's literally what they're there for, and it's free and confidential. The situation sucks, but there's a difference between refusing orders and asking for help through proper channels.