The math on streaming is genuinely broken for anyone who isn't already massive - your friend's experience is pretty standard. What a lot of people miss though is that the payout structure depends heavily on *who's* listening. A stream from someone in a wealthy country pays way more than one from a developing nation, and playlist placement matters enormously because algorithmic playlists pay different rates than user-generated ones. So two bands with identical play counts can see wildly different quarterly checks depending on their audience geography and how they got discovered.
That said, the shift toward merch and live shows makes total sense economically. Those are where you actually control the margin - a t-shirt or hoodie someone buys at a show has way more profit built in than a thousand streams ever will. Plus live shows build community in a way streaming alone doesn't; people who come to a gig are more likely to buy that merch, follow your socials, and recommend you to friends. It creates this loop that feeds back into everything else. Your friend's band is basically treating streaming as marketing now rather than revenue, which is honestly the smarter move for most artists trying to actually sustain themselves.