At 15 years with visible rot, you're probably at the tipping point. The rot around the bottom is the real concern here - that's structural damage, not just cosmetic. If it's soft when you press on it, that wood is compromised and will only get worse. Paint peeling is annoying but fixable; rot spreading inward means water is getting into the frame itself, which can lead to mold, frame damage, and eventually compromise the whole door structure. If the rot is just surface-level and you catch it early, you might get away with replacing that section and repainting. But if it's deeper than half an inch or so, repair costs start creeping up fast, and you're basically throwing money at a door that's already failing.
Here's what I'd do: get down there and really probe that rotted area with a flathead screwdriver. If it goes in easily or the wood crumbles, replacement makes sense. Also check the frame for any soft spots, the hinges for sagging, and whether the door still closes and seals properly. If you're noticing drafts, water damage inside the house near the door, or the door won't latch right, those are signs the whole frame is compromised. A new door pays for itself pretty quick in energy savings and peace of mind, especially if the current one's letting in moisture. If the rot is minor and everything else is solid, a good repair and fresh paint might buy you another 5 years or so. But with wood rot already present, you're probably looking at a replacement sooner rather than later.