I've noticed in the last couple seasons that extra point kicks seem way less reliable than they used to be. Just watched my team miss two in one game last week. Is there something different about how they're kicking now, or am I just noticing it more?
Extra points have gotten genuinely tougher since the NFL moved them back to the 15-yard line in 2015, and that's the main culprit - it's essentially a 33-yard kick now instead of the automatic 20-yarder it used to be. The 94% conversion rate sounds solid until you realize that even small drops in accuracy compound across a full season with 16 teams playing weekly, so you're seeing more misses per game just from the math. On top of that, teams are experimenting more with analytics on when to go for two, and kickers sometimes face pressure situations they didn't before. What you're noticing is real, just scaled - the league-wide rate hasn't cratered, but individual games absolutely can feel sloppy when a team has an off day.
The miss rate hasn't actually gotten that bad overall - kickers are still converting something like 94% of extra points, which is pretty solid. That said, you're definitely noticing a real trend. There was a noticeable dip around 2015 when the NFL moved the extra point back from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line, and while guys have mostly adjusted, the percentage has stayed lower than it was in the old days when they were basically automatic from super close.
A bunch of things play into it. Some kickers struggle with consistency on the longer kick, and weather matters way more at that distance. You also get the occasional setup or hold issue - sometimes it's just a bad snap or the holder putting it down in a weird spot. Plus there's the mental game. When you're kicking from 33 yards instead of like 20, there's just more room for error to creep in. Confidence can mess with your mechanics too, especially if you've had a couple misses recently.
The other thing is that in any given week, you're seeing 32 games with multiple extra point attempts each, so statistically some teams are gonna have rough stretches. If your squad had two miss in one game, that's unlucky but not unheard of. It probably felt worse because they were back-to-back plays, but over the course of a season most kickers still nail like 90-95% of them.
Back in 2015 the NFL moved extra points back from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line, which sounds like a small thing but massively changed the difficulty - suddenly it's not automatic anymore, it's actually a legitimate kick. What you're seeing is partly just that adjustment finally settling in; kickers have gotten better at it over time, but it'll never be the 99% success rate from before. I watched a game where the kicker pulled one left on what should've been a routine attempt, and honestly my first thought was "yeah that's the 15-yard line tax right there." The other thing is pressure matters way more now - when something's expected to be automatic, missing one clearly shakes a guy's confidence, and you see the wobbles compound through a game.
What everyone's missing is the wind factor - that 15-yard distance puts kickers in a much more exposed part of the field where weather swings hit harder, especially in outdoor stadiums during fall games. The other answers nailed the distance increase, but it's worth noting that consistency varies wildly by venue and season, which is probably why it feels like some weeks are a bloodbath and others are fine. A couple missed kicks in one game definitely sticks with you more than the 94% overall makes it sound, so you're noticing real variance rather than total collapse.
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