Battery drain that sudden usually points to something fixable before you resign yourself to replacing them. The thing is, lithium batteries do degrade over time, but you'd expect a gradual slide over two years, not a sudden cliff drop. So something changed recently - either in how you're using them, your phone's settings, or the earbuds themselves.
One thing that caught me off guard with my own earbuds was Bluetooth staying connected to multiple devices at once. If your AirPods are paired with your phone, laptop, tablet, and that old iPad gathering dust in the closet, they're constantly switching between them and draining way faster than normal. Go into your Bluetooth settings and unpair anything you're not actively using. Also check if there's a firmware update waiting for your AirPods - sometimes older firmware has battery drain bugs that a fresh update kills pretty effectively. You can force a check by going into your phone's settings and looking for AirPods in Bluetooth.
The other culprit that gets people is the charging case contacts. Even a thin layer of dust or lint on those tiny metal pins can block a proper charge, so the earbuds are never actually reaching full capacity. Grab a dry cotton swab and gently clean the metal contacts inside the case and on the back of the earbuds themselves. If you've been tossing them in a pocket or bag without the case, they're probably pretty grimy by now. If none of that helps and the drain persists after a reset (hold the back button for about 15 seconds until the light flashes), then yeah, the battery cells might actually be on their way out - but try the easy stuff first.